Dein erstes Forum » day, with five birdies during a round

Each round of the playoffs, I forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This method was 5-3 in the first round and is currently 2-1 in the second round, with the Kings favoured entering their series against Anaheim (Game Seven goes tonight in Anaheim). More on context in a moment. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.9 shots on goal per game and the Montreal Canadiens have allowed 31.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 31.95 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Conference Finals: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Montreal 28.7 31.0 Carey Price .927 15.92 N.Y. Rangers 32.9 29.6 Henrik Lundqvist .922 16.33 Verdict: This series projects to be very closely contested. Through the first two rounds this year, only the two Los Angeles series projected to have a closer differential than the forecasted 0.41 goals between the Rangers and Canadiens, and both of those series were seven-gamers. Montreal has been a subpar puck possession team this year, but it turns out that they have a great goaltender and a dangerous power play, one that was 32% (8-for-25) against Boston. Knock off a few power play goals or give Price a save percentage below the .936 that he posted against the Bruins and it would be easy enough to see Boston in this spot. As for the Rangers, they were a strong puck possession club during the season that eliminated Pittsburgh despite losing the possession game to the Penguins in Round Two. The Rangers also have the benefit of good goaltending, as they rallied from a three-games-to-one series deficit, as Henrik Lundqvist stopped 102 of 105 shots (.971 SV%) in the last three Rangers wins. It would be too simple to suggest that goaltending determines this series, since both Price and Lunqvist are among the best, so there are other factors to consider. Both teams top-scoring forwards havent produced in the postseason. No one on the Rangers has more than Brad Richards nine points in 14 games and Rick Nash has yet to score a goal. Montreals big goal-scorers, Thomas Vanek and Max Pacioretty, combined to score four goals in Game Six and Seven against Boston, after combining for four in the first nine games of the playoffs. The lack of a go-to-scorer for both teams has emphasized the team approach. For Montreal, Lars Eller, Brendan Gallagher, Daniel Briere, Dale Weise and Rene Bourque are among those that have risen to the occasion at times in the playoffs, while the Rangers supporting cast of Benoit Pouliot, Derick Brassard and Carl Hagelin has been able to score just enough for the Blueshirts to reach the Conference Final. If there is a single non-goaltender with the power to shift the series, it could be Montreals P.K. Subban, the top-scoring defenceman in the playoffs who has been in the middle of just about everything that happens with the Canadiens. If Subban is great, that alone could be enough to overcome the slight statistical disadvantage in this forecast. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 17.64 Los Angeles 31.5 26.9 Jonathan Quick .915 16.78 Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.4 27.7 Corey Crawford .919 10.71 Anaheim 30.7 28.8 John Gibson .950 16.56 Verdict: Since there isnt much of a window between the second round ending, Friday night, and the Conference Final round beginning, Saturday at 1:00 pm ET, were going to look at both options in the Western Conference. Chicago hasnt even played their best hockey in the postseason, yet its still been good enough to dispatch St. Louis and Minnesota. Corey Crawford deserves some credit, because his .931 save percentage in this years playoffs is right on track with what he did last year (.932) on the way to the Blackhawks winning the Stanley Cup. Chicago was a dominant possession team during the regular season, second only to Los Angeles in Fenwick Close, but havent held that same edge in the playoffs. Better opposition, and all that. The same could be said for the Kings, who earned 56.7% of the unblocked 5-on-5 shot attempts during the regular season, but havent held that same territorial dominance in the playoffs. The interesting thing is that, while hes had some strong games in the playoffs -- both this year and historically -- Jonathan Quick hasnt been much better than average this year. Its reasonable enough to forecast the Blackhawks to survive that possible matchup, and not just because we know the Blackhawks will for sure be in the Conference Final. When it comes to breaking down the Chicago-Anaheim series, the model gets busted by Ducks rookie goalie John Gibson. Its one thing to have a goalie that has played a grand total of six games in the NHL as the starter, but his .950 save percentage in those games, stopping 171 of 180 shots, is a completely unsustainable level of play. Thing is, unsustainable levels of play can get a team through a playoff series. Gibson was a wildcard injection into the second round, against Los Angeles, after Frederik Andersen was injured, and gives the Ducks a chance in Game Seven. However, its not remotely reasonable forecast to suggest that the Ducks would be 5.85 goals ahead of the Blackhawks in a head-to-head seven-game series. The Ducks arent as strong a possession team as Los Angeles, or Chicago, and have relied on extraordinary shooting percentage, in addition to their hot goalie. The Blackhawks have been a team of high-percentage finishers too, so the Ducks best chance, should they survive the Battle of Los Angeles, may be for Gibson to keep on keeping on. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Cheap Asics Australia . Hargreaves began his career in 2008 with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and has played with the Edmonton Eskimos and last season with the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Buy Asics Shoes Online . Blackhawks RW Patrick Kane came up big when it counted, tallying two goals and an assist. He scored the game-winner with 4:45 remaining in the third period, stopping on the right hashmarks, carrying the puck up through the top of the Kings zone, then firing a wrist shot from the top of the circles past Jonathan Quick, who had his view obstructed by Andrew Shaw. http://www.wholesaleasicsaustralia.com/ . Bostons bats exploded in Mondays opener, as David Ortiz belted a pair of two-run homers, Stephen Drew homered and drove in four runs and the Red Sox pummeled the Blue Jays, 14-1. Discount Asics Australia . Quarterback Drew Willy appeared to injure his throwing hand on the third last play of practice Thursday. Wholesale Asics Shoes Australia . Ireland was the last unbeaten side in the championship after France fell to Wales on Friday, and was favoured to end a three-match losing run to England with a side with more than twice as many caps, rampant momentum, and added incentive to celebrate Brian ODriscolls world record-tying 139th test cap.GREENSBORO, N.C. -- John Huh refused to let tough conditions -- and one terrible hole -- get him down. He was rewarded with a share of the lead at the Wyndham Championship. The PGA Tours reigning rookie of the year shot an even-par 70 on Saturday and joined Patrick Reed atop the field after a soggy third round. Huh and Reed, the second-round leader who shot a 71, were at 10-under 200. Huh shook off a triple bogey on his second hole, making up for it with three birdies in a four-hole stretch of the back nine. "Since the rain picked it up this morning, it wasnt easy for us to play out there, but I told myself, Be patient, stay dry and keep grinding out there," Huh said. Zach Johnson had the days best round -- a 66 -- and was one stroke back along with Bob Estes and John Deere winner Jordan Spieth. Estes shot 68, and Spieth had a 70. Eight players were within two shots of the lead. "Its a Monday qualifier," Reed said. "I had a lot of success at Monday qualifiers, and thats basically what it is. I let everybody back in the field and to now, all of a sudden to have it as bunched as it is, its going to be whoever can make as many birdies as possible tomorrow and shoot a low number." There werent many of those during a rainy day at a Sedgefield Country Club course with challenging pin placements. Play was halted for 2 hours, 59 minutes in the morning while the soaked course could dry out somewhat. Tour officials moved up Sundays final-round tee times in an attempt to beat the rain, just as they did for the third round when they sent players off in threesomes at the first and 10th tees. Play was halted when early morning showers rendered the Donald Ross-designed course unplayable. Rain fell intermittently throughout the day, and though players were allowed to lift, clean and place their golf balls, the conditions played havoc with virtually everyone on the course. "I dont remember a time when there wasnt even a mist in the air," Johnson said. "But the course held up considering. ... The greens were still fast." It was the worst total score for a third-round leader since the tournament moved back to this course in 2008. Every other 72-hole leader here in that span was at least 14 under. Only 13 pllayers shot better than par 70, after 78 players did it Thursday and 63 Friday.dddddddddddd Huh began the day one stroke off the lead after a career-best 62 in the second round. His seven on the par-4 second caused him to plummet down the leaderboard. Turns out that was his only bad hole: He followed that with 10 straight pars before a birdie binge in which he landed approach shots on the 13th and 15th holes within inches of the flagsticks. Reed, the 23-year-old PGA Tour rookie who led by one stroke after two rounds, looked as if he might be in trouble after a pair of bogeys midway through the round dropped him two strokes behind Spieth. Then Reed got hot. The turning point, he said, was a strong drive on the par-4 14th that eventually set up his 20-foot birdie putt. He followed that with impressive approach shots on the next two holes that left him with birdie putts of 5 feet that he sank, moving him to 11 under. He was inches from a fourth straight birdie when his putt on the 17th trickled past the cup, and he slipped back to 10 under when his par putt on the 18th trickled inches wide. Johnson was one of the few players who didnt seem to struggle much on this soggy day, with five birdies during a round that was bogey free until the last hole. The 2007 Masters champion began the day at 5 under -- six strokes behind Reed, but methodically pushed his way up the leaderboard during the round. Then, he surged to the top with two birdies in a four-hole span of the back nine. He placed his approach shot on the par-4 14th roughly 15 feet from the flagstick and sank that putt to move to 10 under. A three-putt on the 18th for bogey dropped him back. "Frankly, for 17 holes, I didnt look like I was going to sniff a bogey," Johnson said. "For the most part, it was solid from hole 1 to hole 18." Charles Howell III was disqualified before starting his round because tour officials said he used a non-conforming driver during the second round. The weight port cover on his driver came off while he was on the driving range and he played his round Friday with it -- which was not allowed. Howell shot a 68 during that round to move five strokes behind Reed, the two-day leader, but will receive no prize money and no playoff points. ' ' '